Monday, December 17, 2012

Believe it or not, Giants still guaranteed playoff spot if they win out

The Giants' embarrassing 34-0 loss to the Falcons yesterday dropped them lower than a limbo dance to third place in the NFC East, but (surprise!) they still control their own playoffs destiny.

So don't put away that salsa music just yet.

If the Giants (8-6) win out, they will earn at least a wild-card bid, because of the NFL tie-breaking system.



If the Giants beat both the Ravens and the Eagles -- they would finish 10-6, with an 8-4 record in the NFC. That conference record would give them tiebreakers over the other wild-card contenders which could possibly be both the Minnesota Vikings the Chicago Bears if they win their last two games.

In the rest of the conference, the Falcons have wrapped up the NFC South and the Packers have won the NFC North. Either the 49ers (10-3-1) or the Seahawks (9-5) will win the NFC West. All the other remaining teams in the NFC playoff picture are at 8-6: Redskins, Cowboys, Bears and Vikings.

If the Giants win out, either the 49ers or the Seahawks -- whoever does not win the NFC West -- could still have a better record than them and earn the No. 5 seed. But if the Giants get to 10-6 and do not win the division, they cannot be overtaken for the No. 6 Wild-Card spot.

The Redskins and the Cowboys cannot both get to 10 wins, since they play each other in Week 17. If the winner of that game finishes at 10-6, that team will be the NFC East champion and out of the Wild-Card race, while the loser would have no better than a 9-7 record.

Finally, the Giants would be ahead of both of the Bears and Vikings even if all three finish at 10-6. Since the Giants have not played either team, the tiebreaker would come down to conference record. Both the Bears and Vikings can finish with at best a 7-5 conference record, worse than the 8-4 record in the NFC the Giants would have by winning out.

The Vikings have the toughest road out of the three teams and face Green Bay (10-4) and Houston (12-2).

So Giants fans, don't be so despondent after yesterday's shellacking.  And there is even hope for the insanely optimistic.

The Giants could still win the NFC East -- although yesterday's loss took control of their division out of their own hands.

Two wins by the Giants, the predicted (see above) loss by either the Redskins or Cowboys — in their meeting — combined with a loss by the winner of that game would give Big Blue the NFC East title outright.  Two wins by either the 'Skins or 'Boys and a loss by the Giants would send Eli back to Hoboken for the winter.

It won't be easy, but anything is possible.


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